956
FXUS66 KLOX 150541
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1041 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...14/125 PM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this
week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over much of the area on
Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los
Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. The next chance of rain
will be next Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...14/1037 PM.

***UPDATE***

High temperatures rose to the low to upper 60s near the coasts,
and to the 70s over the valleys and interior under mostly sunny
skies today. Breezy winds affected the coasts north of Point
Conception with gusts from 25 to near 35 mph, and for the
mountains, Antelope Valley foothills and the I-5 Cooridor.
Currently, gusty sundowner winds are affecting western portions of
the Santa Ynez Range and coastline, with gusts as high as 48 mph
measured. The current wind advisory for this area looks on
track, and is set to expire at 3AM tonight as winds drop off
throughout the area. Winds should increase Thursday, shifting to
the north to northeast. Will likely need some wind advisories by
Thursday evening for favorable valleys and mountains. This will
also lead to warming high temperatures, especially for the coasts
and coastal valleys.

***From Previous Discussion***

Some gusty Sundowner winds expected across southwest Santa Barbara
County this evening and a wind advisory is in effect there.
Otherwise, just clear with cool temperatures overnight with lows
mostly in the 40s, except 50s along the LA Coast.

Another quiet day of weather on tap Wednesday with heights slowly
rising following the departure of the recent storm. Daytime
temperatures will increase 1-3 degrees but otherwise not much
change from today.

An upper low will take an inside track through the Great Basin
Wednesday night into Thursday. Initially this will create gusty
north to northeast winds through the mountains early Thursday
morning. Will likely need some wind advisories for those. And some
winds will filter down into the Santa Clarita Valley and northern
portion of the San Fernando Valley as well as the Antelope
Valley.

That inside slider system will move into Utah Friday setting up a
Santa Ana wind event across LA/Ventura Counties. Deterministic
gradients are on the lower side, mostly under 4mb offshore,
however many of the ensembles are as much as twice that and the
NAM is showing 50kt of northeast wind at 850mb. And the lower res
Euro ensemble is indicating 30-50mph winds across the typical
Santa Ana wind areas. Expecting to see the deterministic solutions
to nudge towards the stronger ensembles over the next day or two.
So Friday should be a warm and dry day with highs in the mid 70s
to mid 80s and gusty Santa Ana winds across portions of
LA/Ventura Counties.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/223 PM.

Friday`s Santa Ana is expected to mainly be a one day event,
though offshore flow will linger into Saturday. Upper support will
be mostly gone as well so any left over offshore winds will be
isolated and of minimal impact. Temperatures will still be
climbing Saturday, with some warmer valleys reaching the upper 80s
intermediate areas like Downtown LA in the low to mid 80s.
Most coastal areas will be in the upper 60s and 70s.

On Sunday offshore flow will be turning onshore as another cold
and at least partially cut off upper low approaches northern
California. Still another warm day inland with highs in the 80s
but cooler near the coast with an earlier sea breeze arrival.

This is going to be a tricky system to forecast as models are
struggling to figure out how far south it will move and at what
speed. There is still a chance of rain Monday, though it could
slip to as late as Tuesday or Wednesday, or miss the area all
together. Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half
of next week, though the rate of cooling will depend on the
movement of the upper low.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0540Z.

At 0525Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

High confidence in VFR conditions for all sites except for:
KPRB 30 percent chc LIFR conds 11Z-16Z. KSBP - 20 percent chc LIFR
conds 09Z-17Z; KSMX 25 percent chc no low clouds; KSMO and KLAX 30
percent chc LIFR conds 13Z-16Z and KLGB 30 percent chc no low
clouds.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent
chc 2SM BR 13Z-16Z. No significant easterly wind component is
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. No wind issues are expected.

&&

.MARINE...14/601 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination
of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday
and Thursday night, there is a 40-50% chance of GALE force winds.
Most likely across far northern waters & south of Pt Conception.
For Saturday through Sunday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA
level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high
confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening
hours. 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts Thursday evening.
For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level
winds during the afternoon and evening timeframe.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. High confidence in SCA level winds
across western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel thru Thursday
night. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast
winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and potentially across
the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday thru Sunday, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/MW
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office