109
FXUS66 KLOX 170439
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
939 PM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...16/113 PM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this
week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over mountains and
Antelope Valley today, shifting to northeast and becoming focused
over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. There is a
chance of rain next Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...16/813 PM.

***UPDATE***

Mostly clear skies covered the forecast area this evening, with
little change expected overnight.

Northerly pressure gradients were increasing this evening with
gusty northerly winds developing over portions of the Santa Lucia
Mtns and the Santa Ynez Mtns. There were also strong and gusty NW
winds noted along the I-5 corridor and other portions of the the
northern L.A County mtns this evening in response to the passage
of an upper level trof to the N. Overnight and into Fri morning,
the winds will switch to N to NE and increase over VTU/L.A
Counties and affect the usual Santa Ana wind corridors Fri morning
into the afternoon. Wind Advisories are in effect for many of
these areas for various times. Please see the latest Non-
Precipitation Weather Message (LAXNPWLOX) for further details.

The winds along the Central Coast have diminished this evening so
the Wind Advisory there was cancelled. Otherwise, no significant
changes to the zone forecast this evening.

***From Previous Discussion***

The main forecast issue through Friday is the winds. A cold upper
level system moving into the Great Basin will create gusty north
to northwest winds across the Antelope Valley and I5 corridor
regions through tonight with wind advisories in effect in the
mountains. As that storm moves into Utah and Colorado later tonight
the upper level winds will veer to the northeast and pressure
gradients will rapidly turn offshore setting the stage for a
moderate Santa Ana wind event for LA/Ventura Counties. Santa Ana
winds will begin in the San Gabriel Mountains probably after 3am,
then spread down into the north and west San Fernando Valley
near or shortly after sunrise, then eventually spreading through
southern Ventura County and the western Santa Monicas by 10am.
This will be a pretty quick shot of wind, lasting only a few hours
at the coast but closer to 6-10 hours in the mountains. However,
peak mountain winds could still reach 60 mph while coast and
valleys generally stay in the 20-40 mph range. Some warming will
accompany this offshore event, though the warmest day by far will
be Saturday with much less wind and highs in the mid to upper 80s
in the valleys and mid 70s to mid 80s elsewhere.

Another warm day expected Sunday, though definitely cooling along
the coast as offshore flow turns onshore by afternoon bringing a
much earlier sea breeze.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...16/223 PM.

Still plenty of uncertainty next week as an even colder upper
level low, completely disconnected from the jet stream, slowly
wobbles down the West coast. Timing is probably the most
uncertain factor due to the low being cut off. There`s still about
24 hours of wiggle room with the onset of rain in any one area,
the earliest being Monday morning along the Central Coast and
Tuesday morning in LA County. There are also still about 20% of
the ensemble solutions showing little or no rain south of Pt
Conception. Having said that, the most likely outcome is for
periods of light rain to develop across most of the area (except
possibly the far interior areas) by Tuesday afternoon with minimal
impacts. The ensembles means have been pretty steady with the
amounts around a half to one inch across SLO County, then dropping
to less than a half inch in LA County. However, if the upper low
manages to slide all the way down to LA County, given the time of
year and the cold air aloft some isolated thunderstorms with heavy
rain are possible. And a few inches of snow are possible at higher
elevations in the mountains, mainly above 6000 feet.

Lastly, there is a possibility of showers lingering as late as
Thursday if the upper low takes a very slow track through the
area. This solution would also likely mean that the initial onset
of rain would be later as well. It may take well into this
weekend before there is any more confidence in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0315Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF Package. Overnight, winds
may shift frequently between northeast/east to light and variable.
Timing of change groups may be off +/- 2 hours. Lgt to moderate
LLWS & turbulence is possible over and near mountainous terrain
after 06Z, especially across Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
There is a 20% chance for MVFR cigs for KSMX, KLAX, and KLGB after
08Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conditions are expected
through the forecast period. However, there is a non-zero chance
that patchy MVFR CIGs develop between 17/09Z-13Z. There is a 60%
chance of east wind component reaching 7-8kts between 10Z and 17Z.
30% chance of reaching 10 kts.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...16/938 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. A combination of (at least) Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level winds and seas are expected through at least Friday
morning, and possibly linger through Friday night. Through late
tonight, current Gale Warnings look on track, and will likely need
SCAs following the gales for high seas. Saturday through Monday,
there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. High confidence in SCA level
winds and seas through tonight, with winds strongest during the
afternoon and evening hours. There is a 20% chance of GALE force
wind gusts across the western portion tonight. Friday through
Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chc of SCA level
winds across the far western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel
this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain
below SCA levels through tonight. Starting early Friday morning,
SCA level NE winds will develop from Ventura south to Santa Monica
spreading out towards Anacapa Island. From Point Mugu to Malibu
on Friday morning, there is a 25% chance for Gale Force winds
nearshore especially below any canyons/passes. Saturday through
Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
criteria for all southern Inner Waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 AM to 2 PM PDT Friday
      for zones 88-354-355-358-369-371-372-374-375. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM PDT Friday for
      zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 349-351>353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 4 AM to 2 PM PDT Friday
      for zones 379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 AM to noon PDT Friday
      for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Sirard
AVIATION...Phillips/Black
MARINE...Phillips/DB/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office